•Archaeologists and geographers have been trying to estimate the pre-1492 population of the Americas for decades. But this is a very difficult task. When Christopher Columbus set foot on the island now known as San Salvador in the Bahamas on Oct. 12, 1492, he encountered the indigenous people who greeted him, traded with him and lived on nearby islands. In his journal, Columbus described these people, who were the first to greet him, trade with him and live on nearby islands.
One of the first modern researchers to attempt to quantify the pre-Columbian indigenous population was the anthropologist Dobyns. In one study, Dobyns used estimates of how many people different land types could support and records of epidemics in the 16th century to arrive at an estimated indigenous population of about 112 million — more than 100 times higher than some earlier experts believed. “In summary, Dobyns filled the land to its maximum carrying capacity, so that all similar environments around the world were populated with the same number of people,” Milner said. “He also assumed that the epidemic was widespread and universal, which would make sense if the land was full.”
In one study, Milner and the geographer Chaplin focused on data from eastern North America; by compiling historical group sizes and the sizes of archaeological settlements, they estimated the location and size of “population communities.” Using this method, their general estimate for eastern U.S. and southeastern Canada was about 1.6 million people. “Our average estimates suggest that North America, before the dramatic reduction of indigenous populations by European diseases in the early 16th century, contained roughly 2.8 to 5.7 million people, or 3.8 million people as a ‘best estimate,'” Milner and Chaplin wrote. “If you start to calculate specific populations, you need to use measurements that work across regions,” the researcher, who is an archaeologist at the University of Wyoming, told Live Science. “People produce things that are ubiquitous, like charcoal, because everyone needs to make fire for heating and cooking.” Charred wood is one of the main human-made things that archaeologists use to date an area with radiocarbon. In North America, many carbon-14 dates from charcoal, along with animal bones and plant remains from archaeological sites, are recorded in CARD (North American Radiocarbon Data Bank). In one study, geographer Peros and his co-authors at Bishop’s University mathematically combined the ranges of radiocarbon dates in CARD to produce a single curve that shows how common C-14 dates were at the time. At that time, CARD contained about 25,000 records. Periods with more people likely produced more material that could be radiocarbon-dated, so the shape of the radiocarbon date curve gave the team an idea of when North America’s population was growing and declining. They found that North America’s population grew rapidly around 50 B.C. and peaked around A.D. 1150. Before that, the indigenous population was likely declining; this may have been because people were clustering in denser settlements as deaths from diseases such as tuberculosis increased. “The 1150 date was a surprising and interesting finding,” Peros told Live Science. “I was expecting that to follow the arrival of Europeans, which would be around 1500.”
In one study, Kelly and his co-authors found a similar peak time. By that time, CARD’s dataset had grown, making the estimates more robust. In the study, the researchers wrote: “Although the indigenous population was decimated by contact with Europeans, it simply peaked in the early 1500s and did not decline thereafter.” In fact, they found evidence of a slight recovery in the population count just before 1500.
“World population has more than doubled in my lifetime; this has never been seen in human existence,” said Milner. “Environmental scientists are trying to look at what happened over long time scales to give us a range of possibilities for what might happen in the future. We need to make some conscious decisions about how we manage our landscape and adapt to these changes.”
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